Talent Shortages in the Dutch Labor Market: Why “Easing” Isn’t Enough and How AI Recruitment Can Help SMEs

Talent shortages in the Dutch labor market are changing shape, not disappearing. Overall tightness may ease slightly, but structural shortages in healthcare, tech, and other key sectors will persist at least to 2030.(Maastricht University) Two-thirds of Dutch businesses already report staff shortages, and SMEs feel the pain in day-to-day operations. (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek)

For Dutch SMEs in business services, retail/e-commerce, and healthcare, the competitive edge will come from shifting from “post a vacancy and hope” to AI-driven, skills-based recruitment. Modern recruitment platforms that use recommendation systems and talent analytics can help match candidates to roles more accurately, surface hidden talent, and build internal mobility pipelines. The opportunity in 2026 is clear: use AI to transform how you find, select, and grow talent, not just to post jobs faster.

Recent Dutch forecasts paint a nuanced picture. Yes, labour market tightness is expected to moderate compared to the post-pandemic peak. But the story doesn’t end there.

Research from Maastricht University’s ROA shows:

In other words: the headline might say “less tight labour market,” but the fine print says “no end in sight for shortages in crucial sectors.”

OECD analysis backs this up. It reports that Dutch unemployment remains low while vacancy rates stay high, and about one-third of businesses cite lack of staff as their main obstacle to operations. Structural factors like population ageing, high part-time work, and lower participation among some groups keep the labour market under pressure. (OECD)

At the same time, CBS data shows that two-thirds of Dutch businesses are struggling with staff shortages, with large firms feeling it the most. Many are responding by improving working conditions and investing in automation, but SMEs often end up limiting production because they simply can’t find enough people. (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek)

So when you hear that labour market tightness is “easing” slightly, read it as: Less acute crisis, same underlying problem.

For SMEs in business services, retail/e-commerce, and healthcare, that means the fight for talent is far from over.

ROA’s forecasts are clear: even in a less overheated labour market, employers will continue to struggle to find and retain STEM workers, healthcare staff, and teachers.

These aren’t just “nice-to-have” roles. They underpin:

Simply put: these are the roles you can’t easily automate away or outsource.

CBS data shows large companies are more likely to:(Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek)

SMEs, by contrast, often respond to staff shortages by reducing production or narrowing their service range. That protects survival in the short term, but it quietly erodes market share over time.

McKinsey’s labour market analysis for the Netherlands highlights a looming mismatch: by 2030, the country could face major shortages in three critical areas of work: skilled manual labour, digital & tech jobs, and health & social care. (McKinsey & Company)

The challenge is not only “we need more people,” but also:

That complexity demands a smarter, data-driven approach to recruitment and workforce planning.

When we talk about “AI-driven recruitment,” we’re really talking about recommendation systems for talent:

Systems that use data on skills, experience, behaviour, and outcomes to recommend the best match between candidates, roles, and development paths.

Modern AI-enabled recruitment platforms can support Dutch SMEs in three big ways.

Instead of filtering candidates by simple checkboxes (degree, years of experience, job title), AI systems can:

This matters in sectors like business services and healthcare, where job titles vary widely, but the underlying competencies—communication, problem-solving, regulatory awareness, and digital literacy—are consistent.

Properly designed, these systems highlight candidates you might otherwise miss: career switchers, part-time returners, or international workers whose experience doesn’t fit perfectly into your existing template.

Talent analytics layers insight on top of your recruitment pipeline:

OECD and McKinsey both stress that boosting productivity through technology and AI is essential if the Netherlands wants to keep labour market tightness under control towards 2030.

AI-driven analytics give SMEs a way to turn recruitment from gut feel into an evidence-based process that supports the productivity agenda.

The McKinsey “future labour market” work introduces a powerful concept: a “train of job transitions” where people move from roles with declining demand into roles with growing demand, supported by targeted upskilling.(McKinsey & Company)

AI recommendation systems can power that train inside your own organization by:

For example:

This is where AI recruitment merges into workforce planning. You’re no longer just filling vacancies; you’re building a living skills ecosystem.

In consulting, marketing, IT, and other business services, Dutch firms face both talent scarcity and rising client expectations. Many roles blend domain expertise, digital skills, and client-facing work.

AI recruitment can help by:

Combined with generative AI tools that automate parts of knowledge work, this creates smaller, more capable teams that are better aligned with client needs. Exactly what current labour and productivity reports say the Netherlands needs.

Retail and e-commerce depend on:

CBS data shows that many firms already respond to shortages by limiting production or service range. (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek)

For these businesses, AI platforms can:

That reduces your dependence on last-minute agency hires and creates a more stable, data-driven staffing model.

ROA and Maastricht University are blunt: even if overall tightness eases, healthcare will stay chronically short of staff.

Here, AI recruitment must operate under stricter safety and ethics expectations, but it still offers real value:

AI cannot fix systemic under-funding or working conditions on its own. But it can help make every recruitment euro work harder and align scarce professionals with the roles where they can have the most impact.

If you are leading a Dutch SME and want to move from “firefighting vacancies” to a more strategic talent model, here is a practical roadmap.

Before buying any AI platform, define:

This gives you a clear specification for evaluating recruitment tech instead of chasing features.

For SMEs, trust matters. Look for platforms that:

This aligns with broader European calls for responsible AI adoption in the labour market and makes it easier to comply with the EU’s emerging AI and hiring regulations. (EPC)

AI should narrow the funnel and surface options, not replace human judgment.

A healthy pattern looks like this:

This hybrid model respects ethics and law, while still giving you the speed and breadth of AI search.

The Netherlands will not solve its labour challenges without large-scale reskilling and job transitions.

Your recruitment system should therefore:

When recruitment and learning talk to each other, your SME can grow its own talent rather than constantly overbidding in the external market.

Finally, track what matters:

The same mistake many firms make with AI in general—tracking deployments rather than business impact—also shows up in recruitment. Outcome metrics are what turn AI recruitment from “nice tool” into “strategic advantage.”

Looking at the data and trends, a pattern emerges:

That makes 2026 a strategic year:

If you lead a Dutch SME, you do not need a 50-person HR department or a bespoke AI lab. You need:

Do that, and “talent shortage” stops being a headline you fear and becomes a constraint you can manage.

Dr. Hernani Costa
Founder & CEO of First AI Movers

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